Netflixunveils its first-quarter results Thursday afternoon.
He see $45 billion in lost U.S. advertising spend versus current forecasts if GDP growth slows in 2025.
To limit downside risk, the firms Michael Nathanson pinpoints Netflix and Alphabet as offering compelling entry points.
Netflix hit ‘Adolescence’ is a highlight of the company’s January-to-March 2025 quarterNetflix
The firm has buy recommendations on both, as well as on Disney, WBD and Meta.
It has hold ratings on Fox, Paramount, Roku and Snap.
But it also said its waiting to revise forecasts ahead of further clarity during earnings calls.
Its an understatement to say that CEO commentary over the next few weeks is highly anticipated.
Nathanson notes that historical recessions (in 2001-2002 and 2008-2009) squeezed domestic parks.
Trumps tariffs have angered U.S. allies.
That said, BofA has had to rethink its outlook.
Still, he says the firm sees limited risk overall.
(And we all remember the explosion of viewing and sign-ups in 2020.)
A monthly premium subscription is cheaper than a sporting event, a concert and even an Imax ticket.
Although exhibitors also tend to benefit in economic downturns.
He has a buy on the stock.
Both we and the Street and us are expecting a small revenue, operating income and EPS beat.
Netflix has said that it will still provide that data in certain situations, like when it hits milestones.
Trump then announced hefty, additional reciprocal tariffs on most countries, tanking markets.
He later walked those back to allow for negotiations.
When China publicly chastised the administration, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%.
China quickly confirmed will cut back imports of Hollywood films, which could impact media company revenue.
Last Friday, Trump suspended tariffs on electronics like iPhone and laptops from China where most are made.
Relief also might also extend to car components.
Automakers are a key advertising category.
